4-minute read
Lakeland voters head to the polls tomorrow — Tuesday, Nov. 4 — to choose a mayor and two city commissioners.
Candidates and civic organizations have been trying hard to get out the vote. But if history is a guide, fewer than one in five Lakeland voters will cast a ballot.
Turnout in Lakeland’s municipal elections has hovered in the mid-teens to low 20s for more than a decade — far below participation in state and national contests. Based on early voting numbers, this year’s election looks likely to be on the low end of that range, unless there is a big surge tomorrow.
Early voting snapshot
Lakeland has 62,600 registered voters. As of Friday, the Polk County Supervisor of Elections reported:
- 8,120 mail ballots sent
- 4,386 mail ballots returned
- 429 early walk-in votes cast
Those numbers worry civic groups because mail-in voting has accounted for more than half of all ballots cast in recent years. There were 9,767 mail-in votes in 2021 and 5,846 mail-in votes in 2023.
City Clerk Kelly Koos said fewer ballots were mailed this year because of a new state law requiring people to make new vote-by-mail requests after every national election.
Now, some observers are wondering if Lakeland can crack 15% turnout. It would take 9,390 total votes to hit 15% and 12,520 votes to reach 20%.
“We make important choices with very few people participating. We’d all benefit from a more engaged city.”
Mayor Bill Mutz
What could boost turnout?
City elections typically draw bigger crowds when the mayor’s office is on the ballot, as it is this year. In addition:
- Big spending: Two well-funded candidates — Sara Roberts McCarley and Ashley Troutman — have been blanketing Lakeland with mailers and text messages. As of Oct. 9, they had raised more than $130,000 combined. In addition, McCarley is supported by a political action committee that has collected at least $42,500 this year.
- Youth appeal: At age 24, Kaitlin Gracie Kramer, has drawn a lot of attention online as the youngest candidate in the race.
- Grassroots effort: District D candidate Kim-Marie Noble has spent six months knocking on doors and telling people about the election.
- City outreach: Every household with a registered voter received a mailer with a sample ballot and polling place information last week. Koos said the outreach cost $11,324.
What could lower turnout?
- Mail-in ballot change: Residents who usually vote by mail might not know that their past ballot requests expired on Jan. 1, 2025. If they did not make a new one, they didn’t receive a ballot.
- Timing: Lakeland holds its elections in odd-numbered years, when there are no statewide or national races to attract attention.
- Limited awareness: Even longtime residents sometimes don’t realize when city elections occur or where to vote.
Almost two decades of lukewarm participation
Turnout in Lakeland’s past nine city elections has ranged from 11.9% to 23.6%, with an average of 22.2% in elections with a mayoral race and 14.3% in elections without.
See past turnout figures
2007: Turnout was 15.1% in an election for one City Commission seat.
2009: Turnout was 19.5% with a three-way race for mayor that led to a runoff between Gow Fields and Jim Verplanck.
2011: Turnout was 13.9%, with two commission seats contested.
2013: Turnout was 22.4% with a hotly contested mayor’s race featuring two well-known Lakeland figures. Howard Wiggs, who raised about 5½ times as much money as his opponent Gow Fields, won.
2015: Turnout dipped to 11.9%, with only one City Commission seat contested. Incumbents were elected to two other seats without opposition.
2017: Turnout rose to 23.2% when Bill Mutz was first elected mayor. There were three other commission seats on the ballot. A “strong mayor” charter amendment that ultimately failed was credited with boosting turnout. Advocates of the amendment raised more than $264,000 to drum up support.
2019: Turnout was 15.4% in the election for two City Commission seats and three proposed charter amendments. The mayor was not on the ballot.
2021: Turnout was 23.6%, with a heated race between Bill Mutz and Saga Stevin for mayor. There were also three commission seats and two charter amendments on the ballot.
2023: Turnout was 15.1% in an election with two contested commission seats. More than half of the city residents who participated voted by mail (5,846 out of 9,456). The mayor was not on the ballot.
Why It Matters
City government decisions — on growth, public safety, traffic and neighborhood investment — affect residents’ daily lives far more directly than many state or federal policies. Yet only a small slice of the electorate chooses who makes those decisions.
Outgoing Mayor Bill Mutz said in 2023, when reflecting on turnout: “We make important choices with very few people participating. We’d all benefit from a more engaged city.”
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 4. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Check your polling place at polkelections.gov.
Find Candidate Info and More on LkldNow’s Voter Guide
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